Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election since 2003 will occur on 11 November 2025. The United States should pay attention to three key dynamics in the upcoming election: Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s electoral performance as he seeks a second term as prime minister, the performance of the political wings of Iran-aligned Iraqi militias (and their allies), and the actions and commentary of populist Shi’a cleric, Muqtada Al-Sadr. Much is at stake in the upcoming election. Prime Minister Al-Sudani has demonstrated during his first term a willingness to work with the United States, and a notable independence from many of the Iran-aligned parties that initially nominated him. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional power has dwindled, largely due to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Bashar Al-Assad’s ouster in Yemen, leaving Iran-backed Iraqi militias as a key remaining pillar in Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Finally, the absence of Al-Sadr’s from the November election process, which he has called on his supporters to boycott, threatens to stifle voter turnout and undermine the legitimacy of the next government.
