Narrative Insights - EdgeTheory

December 4, 2025

South China Sea Information Operations: EdgeTheory Detects Coordinated Narratives Targeting U.S. National Security

This EdgeTheory report synthesizes geospatial, narrative attribution, and network analysis surrounding escalating military activity and strategic signaling in the South China Sea. Drawing from multi-platform collection streams, including state media, regional outlets, and open-source social networks, this brief maps how competing narratives about sovereignty, maritime security, and alliance coordination propagate across the Indo-Pacific information environment. The report uses EdgeTheory’s network-detection and narrative-amplification tools to trace how both malign and friendly actors organize, interact, and reinforce messaging, providing a layered view of how information power shapes regional security dynamics.

November 20, 2025

Narrative Intelligence Exposes Campaigns Manipulating Rare Earth Elements

EdgeTheory

EdgeTheory’s Global Cognitive Social Media Briefs provide a real-time window into how geopolitical narratives evolve, amplify, and influence global perception. In this brief, EdgeTheory’s AI-driven social media and narrative analytics unearthed coordinated messaging around China’s control of rare earth elements (REE)—critical materials underpinning both modern technology and defense systems. By combining geospatial narrative tracking with sentiment analysis, EdgeTheory revealed not only where conversations originate, but how they strategically move across the digital landscape, shaping interpretations of economic policy, sovereignty, and technological power.

November 3, 2025

The Cognitive War over Counter-Narcotics Operations: Narrative Intelligence Reveals Networks of Global Adversarial Actors

Connor Marr

This EdgeTheory report compiles a multi-source analysis of counter-narcotics operations across Latin America and the Caribbean, integrating narrative intelligence, geospatial data, and media signal mapping to trace the evolution of a rapidly developing regional dynamic. EdgeTheory’s narrative classifiers and geospatial analytics examine how U.S. military actions against alleged drug trafficking vessels intersect with information flows and public framing.

October 28, 2025

Shadows of the Sea: Narrative Intelligence on Russia's Shadow Fleet

Connor Marr

This report synthesizes findings from EdgeTheory’s Global Cognitive Adversaries module and traces the emergence, evolution, and militarization of Moscow’s “shadow fleet.” A vast network of aging oil tankers reflagged, concealed through opaque ownership, and deployed to circumvent Western sanctions. Drawing from both state-linked and open-source amplifiers, this brief situates the shadow fleet within Russia’s broader cognitive, economic, and geopolitical strategy, where information narratives and physical logistics converge to sustain wartime revenue and undermine Western enforcement.

October 21, 2025

Cognitive Warfare in Moldova: Narrative Intelligence on Russian Propaganda Tactics and Vulnerabilities

Connor Marr

Russia’s cognitive operations in Moldova represent a sustained attempt to destabilize European security through hybrid influence. Moscow employs NGOs, oligarch funding, crypto wallets, and digital brigades to push competing narratives aimed at confusing, overwhelming, and eroding trust in institutions. Online amplification magnifies minor actions into apparent strategic pressure points. However, the campaign’s impact is limited: Moldova’s small population, high media literacy among key audiences, and strong Western-aligned institutions have constrained Russia’s ability to decisively shape outcomes, reducing the overall effectiveness of these influence operations.

October 17, 2025

Iraq's Evolving Status Quo: Narrative Intelligence on the Regional Undercurrents of Iraq's Upcoming Federal Election

EdgeTheory

Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election since 2003 will occur on 11 November 2025. The United States should pay attention to three key dynamics in the upcoming election: Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s electoral performance as he seeks a second term as prime minister, the performance of the political wings of Iran-aligned Iraqi militias (and their allies), and the actions and commentary of populist Shi’a cleric, Muqtada Al-Sadr. Much is at stake in the upcoming election. Prime Minister Al-Sudani has demonstrated during his first term a willingness to work with the United States, and a notable independence from many of the Iran-aligned parties that initially nominated him. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional power has dwindled, largely due to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Bashar Al-Assad’s ouster in Yemen, leaving Iran-backed Iraqi militias as a key remaining pillar in Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Finally, the absence of Al-Sadr’s from the November election process, which he has called on his supporters to boycott, threatens to stifle voter turnout and undermine the legitimacy of the next government.

October 17, 2025

AI Attacks on the US Economy: Narrative Intelligence Detects Cognitive Attacks on Businesses and Provides Protective Measures

Connor Marr

Synthetic media represents a new class of technological disruption with both economic and national security implications. The capacity to algorithmically generate realistic yet fabricated content—whether images, videos, or voice—has outpaced traditional verification mechanisms across financial systems, labor markets, and public trust domains. This paper examines the emerging intersection between synthetic media technologies and the stability of the U.S. economy. It integrates intelligence-style analysis, focusing on pattern recognition, cognitive security, and systemic vulnerabilities within digital markets.

October 3, 2025

Party Fault Lines Exposed: Narrative Intelligence Surfaces Cracks in Xi’s Authority

Connor Marr

This report examines the evolving contestation of Xi Jinping’s authority within the Chinese Communist Party and across the broader political system. While Xi has amassed unprecedented personal power, recent developments highlight growing fractures: military purges that weaken his base, the re-emergence of sidelined factions, the subtle pushback of Party elders, and the erosion of his dominance in state media. By synthesizing reporting, narrative mapping, and geopolitical analysis, this paper traces how EdgeTheory’s Narrative Intelligence is tracking challenges against Xi Jinping from elites, institutions, and citizens in China.

September 5, 2025

Whispers of Dissent: Narrative Intelligence Suggests Cracks in Xi Jinping’s Power

Connor Marr

Xi Jinping’s authority in 2025 is defined by sharp contrasts between projection and perception. His doctrine of national rejuvenation is reinforced through ideology, military demonstrations, and international summits, yet parallel narratives point to fractures inside the CCP, unrest among younger generations, and Zhang Youxia’s growing influence within the PLA. The convergence of these storylines signals that Xi’s position is no longer viewed as unassailable but instead contested across multiple domains, where loyalty campaigns, elite gatherings, and symbolic events serve as measures of his resilience or decline.

August 28, 2025

Multipolar AI Competition: A New Frontier of Cognitive Warfare

Connor Marr

Artificial intelligence and semiconductor supremacy are rapidly becoming the most critical aspect of geopolitics. Global powers are engaged in a multidimensional struggle of AI & microchip supremacy. This report decodes the interplay between state-led initiatives and Global Cognitive Adversaries (GCA) campaigns that aim to shape perception, policy, and partnerships across key regions. By analyzing the US AI Action Plan, China’s model of technological self-reliance, and India’s expanding semiconductor agenda, it identifies critical zones of competition and alignment.

GCA actors reframe national actions, cast doubt on legitimacy, and amplify alternative governance models. The Global South, BRICS, and non-aligned digital arenas have become testing grounds for competing visions of technological modernity. The following paper unpacks how these forces are shaping a multipolar, digitally fragmented world.

South China Sea Information Operations: EdgeTheory Detects Coordinated Narratives Targeting U.S. National Security

Narrative Intelligence Exposes Campaigns Manipulating Rare Earth Elements

The Cognitive War over Counter-Narcotics Operations: Narrative Intelligence Reveals Networks of Global Adversarial Actors

Shadows of the Sea: Narrative Intelligence on Russia's Shadow Fleet

Cognitive Warfare in Moldova: Narrative Intelligence on Russian Propaganda Tactics and Vulnerabilities

Iraq's Evolving Status Quo: Narrative Intelligence on the Regional Undercurrents of Iraq's Upcoming Federal Election

AI Attacks on the US Economy: Narrative Intelligence Detects Cognitive Attacks on Businesses and Provides Protective Measures

Party Fault Lines Exposed: Narrative Intelligence Surfaces Cracks in Xi’s Authority

Whispers of Dissent: Narrative Intelligence Suggests Cracks in Xi Jinping’s Power

Multipolar AI Competition: A New Frontier of Cognitive Warfare

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