How Narratives Shape Perception:Comparing US Media and Foreign Malign Influencers on China’s Critical Mineral Restrictions

China’s recent decision to restrict critical mineral exports to the United States has sparked a wave of media coverage globally, highlighting the complex interplay of economics, geopolitics, and national security.

However, the narratives framing this development vary significantly between US sources and Foreign Malign Influencers. EdgeTheory’s theme-tracing reveals how these narratives are different and shape not only public opinion but actions too.

Below are two visualizations generated by EdgeTheory’s Theme Tracing Tool, highlighting the lifecycle and amplification patterns of US Media narratives compared to Foreign Malign Influencer narratives. These visualizations illustrate how themes emerge, grow, and spread over time.

US Narratives

FMI Narratives

Figure 1: Contrasting US and FMI narratives about China's Critical Mineral Restrictions

Narrative Mapping: Shows how narratives start and grow over time

Figure 2: This geospatial timeline of FMI narratives indicates a narrative alignment among China, Russia, and Iran.

Theme Tracing

EdgeTheory's Theme Tracing offers comprehensive visualization and analysis of the lifecycle of narratives, from their origin to amplification and eventual targets. This tool enables decision-makers to track the trajectory of narratives, identify their focus and reach, and reveal key amplifiers joining influence campaigns.

With Theme Tracing, businesses and organizations can:

• Detect Emerging Trends: By visualizing the origin and growth of narratives, organizations can spot emerging trends early, allowing them to engage proactively — either by amplifying positive narratives or mitigating risks posed by negative ones.
• Assess Regional Priorities: The tool reveals what regions are being targeted for narrative campaigns, indicating a concern/priority/value for policymakers to engage with/oppose/support.
• Identify Primary Influencers: Narrative Theme Trace identifies both primary publishers and sources amplifying narratives from malign influencers. With this tool organizations and decision-makers can reveal who is backing influence/information campaigns and what audience is being targeted.

Narrative Intelligence equips businesses and policymakers to respond to fast-evolving narratives, whether the goal is countering misinformation, amplifying positive messaging, or addressing emerging concerns. In this post we apply Theme Tracing to reveal how US media and foreign malign influencers frame the same geopolitical event, identifying key influence strategies from malign influencers.

The Context: A Critical Crossroads for the US-China Relationship

Critical minerals, such as rare earth elements, are essential for advanced technologies ranging from semiconductors to clean energy systems. For example, China produces 94% of the world's gallium and 83% of germanium. Gallium and germanium are essential components in semiconductors, while germanium is also utilized in infrared technology and fiber optic cables,

As the United States continues to reduce its reliance on Chinese imports, China’s export restrictions signal an escalation in the ongoing US-China trade and tech war. The stakes are high for both nations, making this issue a media focal point.

US Narratives: A Focus on Economic Fallout and Resilience

US Media outlets approach the topic by emphasizing its implications for the domestic economy, supply chains, and global markets. Key themes include:

• Economic and Consumer Impacts: News articles highlight the immediate consequences of China’s decision, such as potential cost increases, inflationary pressures, and disruptions to industries like electronics and clean energy.
• National Security Concerns: Coverage frequently connects export restrictions to larger national security risks, positioning critical minerals as a vulnerability for the United States.
• Policy and Market Responses: Reports often include expert opinions on how the US government and private sector are preparing to mitigate the fallout, such as diversifying supply chains and increasing investments in domestic mineral production.

While some articles take an alarmist tone, warning of the potential for long-term economic harm, others remain solution-oriented, focusing on steps the US can take to strengthen its position.

Most sources promoting these narratives are known for their high reliability and low bias, indicating US sources covering Chinese export policy tend to present a balanced view of developing policy implications.

Top sources include: Daily Caller, Independent Journal Review, Foreign Affairs, Yahoo! News, GlobalSecurity.org, and Foreign Policy.

FMI Narratives: A Strategic Mischaracterization of the United States

In contrast, narratives from foreign malign influencers are designed to undermine confidence in US policies and amplify China’s strengths. These narratives often include:

• Highlighting US Vulnerabilities: Articles emphasize America’s dependence on Chinese minerals, framing the restrictions as a strategic victory for Beijing.
• Criticizing US Foreign Policy: Narratives argue that the US’s economic sanctions and trade policies have backfired, isolating the country while empowering China to dominate key markets.
• Showcasing China’s Global Alliances: Coverage highlights China’s partnerships with resource-rich regions like Africa and the Middle East, suggesting that the US is falling behind in building similar alliances.

These themes are consistent with the CCP’s strategic narratives: portraying China as a rising global power and the US as struggling to adapt to a changing world order.

Most sources promoting these narratives are aligned with China, followed closely by known Russia-aligned amplifiers, highlighting certain shared narrative priorities between these countries. Top sources include SCMP, Borneo Bulletin, Tasnim News Agency, and China-US Focus.

Implications of Narrative Intelligence

This divergence in narratives highlights a critical lesson: narrative framing shapes not only how events are perceived, but also how stakeholders respond. 

• For businesses, this means staying informed about both domestic and international narratives to anticipate risks and opportunities. Business leaders can detect and anticipate disruptions in supply chains and decide fast to mitigate such risks. 
• For policymakers, it underscores the importance of strategic communication to counter disinformation and build public trust.
• Understand Narrative Influence: Recognize how media narratives can influence public perception, investor confidence, and policy priorities.
• Monitor Narrative Trends: Regularly track how different sources frame key issues, particularly in geopolitical contexts.
• Develop Strategic Messaging: Craft clear, consistent messaging to counter disinformation and highlight resilience efforts.
• Diversify Supply Chains: For industries reliant on critical minerals, this is a wake-up call to reduce dependence on single-source suppliers.

Conclusion: Contrasting Narratives Shaping Global Discourse

The contrasting narratives surrounding China’s critical mineral export restrictions underscore the power of media in shaping global discourse. While US Media focus on resilience and solutions, foreign malign influencers aim to exploit the situation to weaken trust in US policies and amplify China’s strategic dominance. By understanding these dynamics, businesses, policymakers, and the public can make informed decisions in a rapidly-evolving geopolitical landscape.

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