A New EdgeTheory Assessment on how Iranian-, Russian-, and other aligned actors are using attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping across the Gulf and Red Sea to shape perceptions of U.S. power and policy.

Attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping across the Gulf and Red Sea are creating both physical disruption and an increasingly contested information environment. This assessment employed EdgeTheory's EdgeWatch and EdgeRunner workflows to establish the ground truth of reported infrastructure attacks in the Gulf and Red Sea region, assess the narratives surrounding their economic and geopolitical implications, and identify emerging actors and networks advancing potentially misleading or malign narratives against the United States.

What You'll Learn

• Attacks on Gulf and Red Sea energy infrastructure and commercial shipping have escalated, but reporting frequently overstates their scale and certainty.
• The primary information vulnerability is the gap between verified attack effects and unresolved attribution.
• The strongest malign narrative is not simply that the United States is weak, but that it is simultaneously responsible for the crisis and incapable of controlling it.
• Economic narratives provide the clearest bridge between a distant regional conflict and U.S. domestic audiences.
• Cross-network amplification broadens the narrative beyond Iranian information channels.

The information impact of the Gulf infrastructure attacks is being driven less by wholesale fabrication than by the strategic exploitation of real but incompletely understood events. The resulting narratives are particularly effective because contradictory developments can reinforce the same broader message: U.S. escalation is portrayed as causing instability, while U.S. restraint is portrayed as evidence of weakness.

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A new EdgeTheory narrative intelligence brief on how Russia, Iran, and other U.S. adversaries reframe 9/11 to attack American credibility today.

Twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks, 9/11 remains an active part of the information environment — not just a historical anniversary. Russian-, Iranian-, and other adversary-aligned voices continue to reinterpret the attacks and the subsequent War on Terror to advance narratives about U.S. interventionism, hypocrisy, intelligence failures, and declining global power. These narratives connect the legacy of 9/11 to today's headlines: Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, terrorism designations, sanctions, and ongoing U.S. military activity.

EdgeTheory's latest narrative intelligence brief breaks down how adversaries are talking about 9/11 in 2026, the key themes shaping that messaging, and what it means for narrative intelligence and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts tracking how historical events get repurposed for contemporary influence operations.

What You'll Learn

• How the War on Terror is recast as a pretext for militarism — how Russian- and Iranian-aligned voices connect 9/11 to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Iran to argue Washington used counterterrorism to justify military expansion and regime change.
• How adversaries erode U.S. credibility on counterterrorism — the "hypocrisy" narrative that contrasts the post-9/11 campaign against al-Qaeda with current U.S. relationships and terrorism designations, including real examples with engagement data.
• Why 9/11 conspiracy narratives persist 25 years later — how claims questioning the official 9/11 account are still used to seed broader distrust in U.S. intelligence assessments and institutions.
• How different adversaries use 9/11 differently — the distinct approaches taken by Russian, Iranian, Chinese, and North Korean messaging, from claims of American decline to justifying nuclear deterrence.
• What this means for narrative intelligence and OSINT — why analysts need to track how historical narratives migrate across actors, platforms, and conflicts, including how this connects to HPSCI's 25-year review of U.S. intelligence capabilities.

Twenty-five years later, 9/11 illustrates why historical narratives should be treated as persistent indicators within the information environment — not isolated reactions to an anniversary. As adversaries continue to repackage existing grievances around current events, understanding how these narratives are built, migrate, and resurface is essential to staying ahead of the next reframing of American legitimacy.

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AI Distillation Attacks: Inside China's Race to Extract U.S. AI Capabilities

A new EdgeTheory assessment on the fastest-growing flashpoint in the U.S.-China AI race

AI distillation - the technique of training a smaller "student" model on a powerful "teacher" model's outputs - has become one of the most contested issues in global AI competition. Anthropic and OpenAI allege that Chinese firms including Moonshot AI, DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Alibaba have run industrial-scale campaigns to extract reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities from U.S. frontier models like Claude - using tens of thousands of fraudulent accounts and tens of millions of exchanges. At the same time, PLA-linked research institutions have published work applying distillation to military and security applications.

EdgeTheory's latest assessment cuts through the noise to separate legitimate model distillation from suspected unauthorized extraction, and explains why this fight matters for the future of U.S. AI leadership.

What You'll Learn

• How distillation attacks actually work - the technical mechanics behind how a "student" model learns from a "teacher" model's outputs, and why reasoning traces and agentic trajectories are far more valuable to extract than simple answers.
• Who's behind the alleged campaigns - a breakdown of the key suspected actors, including Moonshot AI, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Alibaba/Qwen, and PLA-linked research institutions, and what's actually been proven versus alleged.
• Why this threatens the U.S. AI advantage - how distillation shifts the competition from controlling advanced chips to protecting model capabilities, and what that means for the future of export controls.
• The geopolitical fallout for the global AI race - how distillation could accelerate China's AI catch-up, expand its global influence, and drive deeper U.S.-China technology fragmentation.
• The real national-security stakes - how commercially developed AI capabilities could diffuse into military, cyber, surveillance, and intelligence applications, and what policymakers are already proposing in response.

Understanding these dynamics is no longer optional for anyone tracking U.S.-China technology competition.

As the fight over AI shifts from silicon to software, the actors, methods, and policy responses covered in this report will shape how the next phase of the AI race is won - or lost.

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The 2026 Cyclospora outbreak began with a relatively straightforward public-health question: What was making people sick?

But as the outbreak spread, the questions became much bigger.

Who was responsible? Was Taco Bell to blame? What did Taylor Farms' role say about the food supply chain? Was imported produce putting consumers at greater risk? And had government oversight failed to keep Americans safe?

The FDA provides the factual baseline. But the narratives surrounding those facts extend much further.

A specific lettuce outbreak becomes a question about the safety of fresh produce. Traceback to a Mexican supplier becomes concern about imported food. Exposure at Taco Bell becomes a debate over brand responsibility. And a complex federal investigation becomes evidence, for some audiences, that government oversight is failing.

Using EdgeTheory's C2 Narrative Intelligence Platform, this report examines the six major narratives shaping the 2026 Cyclospora outbreak—along with the sources and actors amplifying them, the emotions giving them momentum, and their potential implications for brands, consumer behavior and business performance.

Facts establish what happened. Narratives shape what those facts come to mean.

What This Narrative Intelligence Analysis Reveals

• How a food-safety outbreak became a much broader crisis of trust.
• Why Taco Bell, Taylor Farms, imported produce, and government oversight became part of the same narrative environment.
• Who helped shape and amplify the narratives—and which emotions gave them momentum.
• How narratives can move beyond online conversation to influence brand reputation, consumer behavior and business outcomes.

From Foodborne Outbreak to Crisis of Trust

The immediate health threat will eventually subside. The narratives it created may not.

Taco Bell can remain associated with illness. Taylor Farms can become associated with repeated food-safety incidents. Mexican produce can become part of broader arguments about imports. And regulatory difficulties can reinforce existing distrust of government institutions.

That distinction is central to Narrative Intelligence. Understanding not only what happened, but how people interpret what happened, who shapes those interpretations, and how they spread, can provide organizations with a clearer view of emerging brand, reputation and business risk.

The most important question, then, is no longer only Is this lettuce safe? It becomes:

Can I trust the nation's food supply?

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Learn more about the CPNI program.