October 17, 2025
Iraq's Evolving Status Quo: Narrative Intelligence on the Regional Undercurrents of Iraq's Upcoming Federal Election
EdgeTheory
Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election since 2003 will occur on 11 November 2025. The United States should pay attention to three key dynamics in the upcoming election: Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s electoral performance as he seeks a second term as prime minister, the performance of the political wings of Iran-aligned Iraqi militias (and their allies), and the actions and commentary of populist Shi’a cleric, Muqtada Al-Sadr. Much is at stake in the upcoming election. Prime Minister Al-Sudani has demonstrated during his first term a willingness to work with the United States, and a notable independence from many of the Iran-aligned parties that initially nominated him. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional power has dwindled, largely due to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah and Bashar Al-Assad’s ouster in Yemen, leaving Iran-backed Iraqi militias as a key remaining pillar in Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Finally, the absence of Al-Sadr’s from the November election process, which he has called on his supporters to boycott, threatens to stifle voter turnout and undermine the legitimacy of the next government.
