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narrative intelligence
June 18, 2025

FMI Nuclear Narrative Engineering Risks Destabilizing Deterrence

EdgeTheory
Foreign Malign Influencers (FMIs) are attempting to shape global perceptions of nuclear deterrence by reframing China and Russia as defenders of strategic stability while portraying U.S. deployments and treaty positions as destabilizing and escalatory. These coordinated campaigns leverage state-backed sources, think tanks, and influencer networks to target vulnerable populations and fracture Western consensus on nuclear policy. By amplifying narratives that normalize the use of tactical nuclear weapons, especially in hotspots like Ukraine and Taiwan, FMIs aim to lower the nuclear threshold and erode the credibility of U.S. deterrence, hampering a credible US response and granting leeway for adversarial nuclear posturing. Left unchecked, this disinformation can influence public opinion, fracture alliances, and legitimize nuclear posturing that escalates regional tensions.

EdgeTheory’s narrative intelligence platform provides a critical solution by surfacing, analyzing, and mapping the spread of these disinformation campaigns in real time. Through advanced detection of narrative amplification patterns across social and traditional media, EdgeTheory identifies the sources, strategies, and geopolitical targets of malign influence operations. Our platform equips national security and policy leaders with early warning indicators and actionable insight into how adversarial narratives evolve and spread. By demonstrating the rhetorical infrastructure behind foreign influence, EdgeTheory empowers decision-makers to reinforce deterrence, safeguard alliances, and counteract disinformation with credible strategic messaging.
June 5, 2025

Tariffs, Tensions, and Tactics: FMI Operations Targeting U.S. Trade Policy

EdgeTheory
FMI operations are intensifying across U.S. trade policy domains, with tariffs and economic nationalism emerging as critical battlegrounds. Industries linked to manufacturing, energy, agriculture, and technology now face heightened exposure to reputational attacks, regulatory manipulation, and geopolitical disinformation. Strategic competitors—particularly China, Russia, and Iran—are executing coordinated narrative campaigns that depict U.S. tariff regimes as exploitative, destabilizing, and imperialistic. These malign narratives seek to fracture alliances, erode trust in American economic leadership, and bolster global sympathy for multipolar resistance.

State-linked actors manipulate themes such as economic victimization, neocolonialism, and domestic inequality to amplify opposition to U.S. trade initiatives. This strategy is particularly visible in efforts to undermine U.S. semiconductor policy, agricultural sanctions, and green energy trade controls. By blending grievance-based messaging with curated misinformation, FMI aims to deepen political divides within the U.S. while undermining consensus among Western partners. The result is a distorted global perception of U.S. economic strategy—one that falsely links tariffs to imperial ambition and global instability.

EdgeTheory’s narrative intelligence platform provides an early-warning capability for identifying and disrupting these narrative attacks. Drawing from thousands of sources across digital and broadcast ecosystems, the platform surfaced four dominant themes in the ongoing campaign: trade imperialism, economic injustice, alliance fragmentation, and emerging bloc solidarity. These narratives are not only reactive—they are proactive tools for restructuring global norms in ways favorable to authoritarian states. By delivering high-fidelity analysis of real-time influence patterns, EdgeTheory enables both public and private sector leaders to preempt strategic narrative manipulation, defend economic legitimacy, and safeguard U.S. interests in a contested global marketplace.
May 27, 2025

Foreign Influence in the Arctic

EdgeTheory
The evolving narrative landscape surrounding the Arctic has widespread impacts across a range of industries, risking multinational security interests and military confrontations. Energy companies are confronting both operational and reputational challenges as discussions about Arctic drilling, sanctions, and environmental concerns intensify. In shipping and logistics, the emergence of the Northern Sea Route introduces new opportunities alongside amplified risks tied to shifting regulations and insurance uncertainties driven by evolving geopolitical posturing. Technology and infrastructure initiatives in the region are under increasing scrutiny for their security and environmental implications, especially amid growing Russian and Chinese involvement. Even financial services are affected, as investors and insurers must carefully evaluate their exposure to geopolitical and reputational risks that can influence asset values and underwriting decisions. Together, these interconnected pressures risk undermining both business investments and political efforts in the Arctic region.

By tracking narrative items published by foreign Malign Influencers (FMI) discussing the Arctic, EdgeTheory identified a distinct Russian strategy to promote national interests in the Arctic region by sowing discord between NATO allies while promoting supposed Russian attempts to create peaceful resolutions. Chinese sources are also involved, particularly regarding strategic posturing of political connections and economic agreements to boost entrenchment in critical regions such as Greenland. 

If these coordinated attempts go unaddressed, decision-makers, politicians, and business executives risk losing public support, being pushed out of strategic markets, or expending excess capital on risky ventures. Narrative Intelligence (NARINT) reveals the tactics behind influence and propaganda campaigns, identifying the primary risks posed by foreign actors in rapidly evolving geopolitical landscapes. Read the full report here.

March 13, 2025

Narrative Intelligence Uncovers Indicators of Chinese Economic Warfare Against the US

EdgeTheory
EdgeTheory's Narrative Intelligence brief on Chinese Economic Warfare uncovers how the People's Republic of China (PRC) exploits vulnerabilities in U.S. law to advance its strategic goals. Through sophisticated information operations, Chinese state-controlled and affiliated entities manipulate public sentiment and policy discussions surrounding technology and intellectual property. EdgeTheory’s real-time analysis identifies key tactics used by the PRC, including amplifying pro-CCP narratives through social media and leveraging foreign non-state sources to create an illusion of independent verification. Additionally, EdgeTheory’s geopolitical threat monitoring exposes China’s use of patent litigation as an economic warfare strategy—employing legal mechanisms such as the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) to weaken U.S. innovation while appropriating technology for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). These findings reveal a coordinated effort to manipulate global perceptions of China’s technological dominance while undermining foreign competition through aggressive legal and narrative warfare.

By utilizing AI-driven narrative threat analytics, EdgeTheory identifies how adversarial narratives shape global and regional stability. Through geospatial intelligence and multilingual analysis, EdgeTheory’s platform tracks emerging threats, identifies key influencers, and maps narrative amplification strategies in real time. This capability allows intelligence analysts and decision-makers to proactively counter foreign malign influence (FMI) and safeguard economic and national security interests. As demonstrated in our latest analysis, EdgeTheory empowers organizations to detect, analyze, and mitigate narrative manipulation with precision—providing a critical advantage in the ever-evolving information landscape. Read the full report here.
March 12, 2025

Echoes of Conflict: Competing Narratives Shape Iraq’s Political and Security Landscape post-Assad

Peyton Day
Ties between the Shia-led governments of Iraq and Syria have long been reinforced by their shared guarantor state, Iran. Following the overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad by opposition forces in November 2024, the future of Iraqi-Syrian relations remains uncertain. However, narrative analysis can provide insights into how influential players in Iraq plan to respond to these developments in the coming months. This report aims to (a) assess the reactions of Iran’s Axis of Resistance (AOR) in Iraq to the security dilemma created by the fall of the Assad regime; and (b) analyze the impact of recent regional developments on Iraqi political narratives. Part one of this report focuses on Iraqi AOR responses to the Syrian transition as Syria's interim government began to consolidate its authority, prompting Tehran to pause and reassess its operational strategies and diplomatic engagements in the region. Part two of this report focuses on the further evolution of Iraqi political narratives as the dynamics of Syria’s transition and trajectory become clearer, examining how domestic political actors are reconfiguring their strategic outlooks amid shifting security imperatives. 

The narrative analysis presented in this report was generated with EdgeTheory’s narrative analytics platform using modules designed to track online conversations surrounding responses to and impacts of Syrian regime change in Iraq. This AI-driven technology ingests and analyzes source data to uncover thematic and behavioral trends among publishers and influencers, using detected trends, themes, keywords, and amplifications to provide insights into the effectiveness of deployed information campaigns. Data extracted from this platform can be used to identify patterns in narrative amplifications and themes, allowing analysts to generate valuable inferences and predictions regarding strategic messaging shifts, influence operations, and evolving regional narratives.
February 24, 2025

FMI Targeting the US Over Critical Minerals

EdgeTheory
Foreign malign influencers (FMI) are accelerating narratives around critical minerals, amplifying China's dominance while portraying U.S. policies as ineffective. With China leveraging its supply chain control for economic and geopolitical influence, FMI sources from Russia, Iran, and other aligned entities are actively promoting narratives that undermine U.S. credibility and international partnerships. These narratives strategically target key audiences in Washington, D.C., and Ukraine, using tailored messaging to sow division and weaken Western policy responses. Meanwhile, Western narratives remain fragmented, in a stark contrast to the coordinated nature of malign influence campaigns, leaving policymakers and businesses vulnerable to distorted perceptions of global resource competition.

EdgeTheory's Narrative Intelligence technology provides a powerful solution to detect and respond to these influence operations. By tracking and analyzing the amplification patterns of malign narratives, EdgeTheory reveals the coordinated efforts of FMI and highlights the key themes driving global discourse. Through real-time narrative mapping, intelligence analysts, business leaders, and policymakers gain critical insights into emerging risks, enabling them to respond strategically and maintain decision advantage. EdgeTheory equips organizations with the tools to detect disinformation, assess shifting geopolitical alignments, and develop informed strategies to navigate the evolving information warfare landscape.
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