March 12, 2025
Echoes of Conflict: Competing Narratives Shape Iraq’s Political and Security Landscape post-Assad
Ties between the Shia-led governments of Iraq and Syria have long been reinforced by their shared guarantor state, Iran. Following the overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad by opposition forces in November 2024, the future of Iraqi-Syrian relations remains uncertain. However, narrative analysis can provide insights into how influential players in Iraq plan to respond to these developments in the coming months. This report aims to (a) assess the reactions of Iran’s Axis of Resistance (AOR) in Iraq to the security dilemma created by the fall of the Assad regime; and (b) analyze the impact of recent regional developments on Iraqi political narratives. Part one of this report focuses on Iraqi AOR responses to the Syrian transition as Syria's interim government began to consolidate its authority, prompting Tehran to pause and reassess its operational strategies and diplomatic engagements in the region. Part two of this report focuses on the further evolution of Iraqi political narratives as the dynamics of Syria’s transition and trajectory become clearer, examining how domestic political actors are reconfiguring their strategic outlooks amid shifting security imperatives.
The narrative analysis presented in this report was generated with EdgeTheory’s narrative analytics platform using modules designed to track online conversations surrounding responses to and impacts of Syrian regime change in Iraq. This AI-driven technology ingests and analyzes source data to uncover thematic and behavioral trends among publishers and influencers, using detected trends, themes, keywords, and amplifications to provide insights into the effectiveness of deployed information campaigns. Data extracted from this platform can be used to identify patterns in narrative amplifications and themes, allowing analysts to generate valuable inferences and predictions regarding strategic messaging shifts, influence operations, and evolving regional narratives.
